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De Place Hansen, E J and Larsen, J N (2011) Employment and winter construction: a comparative analysis of Denmark and western European countries with a similar climate. Construction Management and Economics, 29(09), 875–90.
Espinoza, R D (2011) Contingency estimating using option pricing theory: closing the gap between theory and practice. Construction Management and Economics, 29(09), 913–27.
Griffith, A (2011) Delivering best value in the small works portfolio of public sector organizations when using preferred contractors. Construction Management and Economics, 29(09), 891–900.
Jha, K N and Chockalingam, C T (2011) Prediction of schedule performance of Indian construction projects using an artificial neural network. Construction Management and Economics, 29(09), 901–11.
Jiang, H and Liu, C (2011) Forecasting construction demand: a vector error correction model with dummy variables. Construction Management and Economics, 29(09), 969–79.
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: construction demand; forecasting; global financial crisis; vector error correction model
- ISBN/ISSN:
- URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01446193.2011.611522
- Abstract:
Modelling the level of demand for construction is vital in policy formulation and implementation as the construction industry plays an important role in a country's economic development process. In construction economics, research efforts on construction demand modelling and forecasting are various, but few researchers have considered the impact of global economy events in construction demand modelling. An advanced multivariate modelling technique, namely the vector error correction (VEC) model with dummy variables, was adopted to predict demand in the Australian construction market. The results of prediction accuracy tests suggest that the general VEC model and the VEC model with dummy variables are both acceptable for forecasting construction economic indicators. However, the VEC model that considers external impacts achieves higher prediction accuracy than the general VEC model. The model estimates indicate that the growth in population, changes in national income, fluctuations in interest rates and changes in householder expenditure all play significant roles when explaining variations in construction demand. The VEC model with disturbances developed can serve as an experimentation using an advanced econometrical method which can be used to analyse the effect of specific events or factors on the construction market growth.
McCabe, A, Parker, R and Brown, K (2011) Social outcomes in the construction industry: the case of the Western Australian ‘Percent for Art’ policy. Construction Management and Economics, 29(09), 929–41.
Styhre, A (2011) The overworked site manager: gendered ideologies in the construction industry. Construction Management and Economics, 29(09), 943-955.
Wakchaure, S S and Jha, K N (2011) Prioritization of bridges for maintenance planning using data envelopment analysis. Construction Management and Economics, 29(09), 957–68.